Horizon 1 proves it with an MVP at Erasmus MC, around 300 patients, 100 each across colorectal cancer, sarcoidosis, and pulmonary fibrosis. Smartphone logging only — wearables are deliberately excluded to keep privacy risk and complexity down. It clears the gate at 60% app adherence, a one-point rise in Patient Activation Measure, and double the clinician-rated usefulness, funded by public grant with hospitals on a free pilot licence.
Horizon 2 scales it across three or more Dutch medical centres, wearable data merged into the record, targeting a 20% drop in readmissions and 30% clinician time saved. Revenue shifts to low-cost SaaS with insurers piloting bundled payments. Horizon 3 sustains it nationwide, across multiple chronic diseases, with quality-of-life and activation scores treated as routine vital signs and reimbursement moving to shared savings.
Every horizon carries its own safeguard, and they escalate. Position as a non-medical device and secure consent for AI-generated insights. Then algorithmic transparency, EU MDR and GDPR conformance. The hardest safeguard comes last, designing against automation bias, keeping clinical oversight on adaptive recommendations, and holding audit readiness for the AI modules.
My call
I paced the roadmap to when the rules arrive.
Each horizon is gated on something outside the product, starting with fast-track clearance for decision support that does not automate decisions, then interoperable EHR and wearable infrastructure, then EU AI Act enforcement. Building faster than the governance arrives is how health-tech pilots die.